Coming out of the bye and getting some key players healthy, the Seattle Seahawks head to Cincinnati this Sunday to prove that the Bengals are past their early-season struggles. The NFL odds favor the Bengals at -3 with the total in the potential windy and wet meeting sitting at 45.
With Geno Smith looking better than the last time he played and Joe Burrow creating some recency bias vs. one of the worst defenses in football last week, should bettors be taking the points this Sunday, especially with the move from 2.5 to 3 in the Week 6 NFL odds?
Here are my free NFL picks for Seahawks vs. Bengals on Sunday, October 15.
Seahawks vs Bengals odds
Seahawks vs Bengals predictions
Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals’ offense entered Week 5 having scored just four touchdowns on the season and the quarterback struggling as a passer. Well, Joe Cool threw for 317 yards and three scores but that came against the Cardinals who didn’t have both starting safeties. Now this offense (possibly without Tee Higgins) faces a Seattle defense that ranks fourth in EPA/play since Week 2, first in success rate and EPA/play vs. the runs, and coming off the bye.
Seattle could also get Jamal Adams back who left his debut with a concussion in Week 4. Burrow was lucky in Week 5 to face a team that sits 31st in pressure %, and although the Seahawks are an average pressure-creating unit, it’s a much more difficult matchup.
Recency bias might be playing a factor here as the Bengals have been more bad than good this year and could be without starting corner Chidobe Awuzie. The extra time off is certainly benefiting Pete Carroll’s squad as Geno Smith looks healthy, Adams is expected back, and two starters on the O-line, Charles Cross and Damien Lewis could suit up.
Seattle has been a preferred team to back as a dog this year as the defense is underrated and the offense can put up points with 98 points over its last three games. Since Week 2, there are only two teams that have an offense and defense in the top 6 in EPA/play — Kansas City and Seattle.
With projected poor passing conditions — double-digit winds and possible rain — this could be a slow and tight game and thanks to the extra rest and the number moving off the 2.5 to the 3, I’m taking the points here.
My best bet: SEA +3 (-110 at FanDuel)Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Seahawks vs Bengals same-game parlay
Seahawks +3.5Walker 125+ rushing and receiving yards
+700 at bet365
This is shaping up for a big Kenneth Walker game. The Seahawks are coming off the bye, Geno Smith is coming off a Week 4 knee injury but is practicing in full.
The RB has seen at least 17 carries in three straight games while also contributing in the passing game with 73 yards on 10 targets over four outings. Pete Carroll seemingly never abandons the run and Walker will have a big role in any game script. Potential wind and rain are also favoring his Overs.
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Seahawks vs Bengals spread and Over/Under analysis
This spread was 2.5 on the look-ahead and has slowly worked its way to 3 as of Wednesday afternoon. I do think there should be some resistance on the -3 here as the extra rest has helped Seattle get some bodies back on the field and the Bengals’ win in Week 5 doesn’t do much for me. The Cardinals are a bottom-tier team that didn’t have Budda Baker and lost their other starting safety, Jalen Thompson.
The Seahawks could get safety Jamal Adams back and two members of the starting O-line. The Bengals could be without starting corner Awuzie as well as Tee Higgins who was inactive in Week 5.
Weather will also be a factor. Double-digit winds are expected and some rain is possible. It’s expected to be in the mid-50s at game time.
The total sat at 44 on the look-ahead, reopened at 45.5, and hit as high as 46.5 before being bet down to 45. The weather is certainly a driving factor here.
Looking at props before the markets open, I’ll be looking to fade Joe Mixon’s rushing numbers on any number above 62. Seattle has held opposing RBs to under 60 yards a game and its 3.2 yards per rush attempt allowed is tied for the best mark in football. Mixon is still a plodder and has just one run on the year of 15-plus yards. He ranks 39th in breakaway run rate at 1.7%.
Last week without Tee Higgins, Ja’Marr Chase saw 19 targets on 46 dropbacks, Trenton Irwin had 10 targets, and Tyler Boyd saw seven balls. On Seattle, Ty Lockett leads the team with a 22% target share and DK Metcalf sits at 19%. Rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba ranks third with a 16.4% target share.
