It’s never dull when the Kansas City Chiefs and Cincinnati Bengals collide, and this marquee Week 2 matchup is shaping up to be another chippy showdown at Arrowhead.
However, Cincinnati has major questions to resolve after an ugly outing last weekend, and my Bengals vs. Chiefs predictions point to more home cooking for Patrick Mahomes & Co. Read my NFL picks below and be sure to check out our Bengals vs. Chiefs props for more.
Bengals vs Chiefs prediction
My best betChiefs -6 (-105 at BetMGM)
My analysisNew season, same old Kansas City Chiefs.
Kansas City finished last season with six straight wins, and the early signs this year are ominous after the back-to-back Super Bowl champs posted 27 points on opening night against a good Ravens defense.
The Chiefs’ slick offensive performance in Week 1 couldn’t have been more different from the Cincinnati Bengals’ horror show against the Patriots, and I’m laying the points with a KC team brimming with playmakers.
There’s no denying this line was heavily influenced by Cincinnati’s no-show last weekend, but I’m not sure why we should expect better from the visitors here.
No matter what he says publicly, Joe Burrow doesn’t seem to have full faith in his wrist after offseason surgery. Tee Higgins is doubtful with a hamstring injury, and the Bengals are notorious for underwhelming in September. There’s just not the same Burrowhead swagger about Cincinnati heading into this matchup.
Aside from Ja’Marr Chase, no Bengals receiver had more than 26 yards against New England, and the visitors just don’t have the depth to keep pace with a Chiefs offense that’s wasted no time getting rookie Xavier Worthy into the action.
I see the KC defense putting in another impressive shift, setting up Patrick Mahomes to do his thing. Keep in mind the Chiefs moved the ball effortlessly at times against Baltimore despite a quiet night for Travis Kelce — three catches for 34 yards — and tough sledding on the ground for Isiah Pacheco.
Beware Andy Reid with 10 days to prepare. Clearing a winning margin of less than a touchdown feels more than doable here.
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Bengals vs Chiefs same-game parlay
Chiefs -6Rashee Rice Over 67.5 receiving yardsJoe Burrow Under 235.5 passing yards
+360 at BetMGM
Worthy’s two touchdowns were the highlight moments for Kansas City in Week 1, so Rashee Rice’s big night went a little under the radar. He ended up with seven catches on nine targets for 103 yards, and this O/U line feels too low for his receiving yards on Sunday.
He went past this number in four of his final six regular-season games last year, including a 127-yard effort against the Bengals, and is on his way to becoming Mahomes’ No. 1 target.
I’m also fading Burrow’s passing yards prop after Cincinnati struggled to move the chains against the Pats. He completed 21 of his 29 passes but only finished with 164 passing yards, with Chase blanketed and largely unproven receivers as the second and third options.
Without more evidence, I just don’t buy the idea that the Bengals can flip a switch and get to the Chiefs’ level here. Do they have enough of a vertical threat? And if so, does Burrow have enough faith in his wrist to make those plays?
The spotlight will be even brighter this weekend. While Burrow has typically embraced that kind of pressure, I have my doubts about Cincinnati at the skill positions, and that makes this Under an attractive addition.
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Bengals vs Chiefs odds
Bengals vs Chiefs live odds
Bengals vs Chiefs opening odds
- Spread: Cincinnati +3.5 | Kansas City -3.5
- Moneyline: Cincinnati +165 | Kansas City -200
- Over/Under: Over 48.5 | Under 48.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
Bengals vs Chiefs spread and Over/Under analysis
- Kansas City enters as the clear favorite, though this line opened at -3.5 in the summer before the impact of Week 1 results, and the hosts went 13-7-1 ATS last season (including the playoffs).
- The Chiefs have won the past two meetings at Arrowhead, including a 25-17 victory last season, and Joe Burrow doesn’t have a Week 2 win on his NFL record.
- The Under is 8-2 in the last 10 matchups between these teams, but the Over was 10-7 for the Bengals in 2023. Cincinnati has also hit the first-half Over in seven of its past eight road games.
