The Indianapolis Colts are to face the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday in the latest Week 6 odds. The Jaguars are returning home after a two-week stint in London and now square up against a Colts side that will be missing starting quarterback Anthony Richardson.
Despite backup Gardner Minshew taking over under center, money has come in on the visitors and NFL odds for this contest have slimmed from Jaguars -5 to -4.
Should you go against or follow the line movement? I let you know with my best free NFL picks for Colts vs. Jaguars on October 15.
Colts vs Jaguars odds
Colts vs Jaguars predictions
It’s a pretty rare sight to see an underdog lose its starting quarterback and get fewer points on the spread, but that’s exactly what we’re seeing here. The main reason for that is the faith that many have in backup Gardner Minshew, who has plenty of experience when acting as a starter over the last few years and looked sharp in relief last week.
That said, I certainly don’t buy into the narrative that the Indianapolis Colts are better with Minshew under center. Anthony Richardson may be a rookie but he’s also a huge threat with his legs and has big-play potential. Minshew is solid but he’s much easier to gameplan against and this is a Jacksonville Jaguars defense that has already prepared for QBs like Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes.
Jacksonville’s stop unit is 11th in the league in defensive EPA and ranks fourth in rush EPA, so they should be able to slow down an Indy offense featuring Zack Moss and Jonathan Taylor.
The other reason why many are fading the Jaguars is that they are coming off a nine-day trip to Merry Old England where they pulled off back-to-back impressive wins and could be set up for a bit of a letdown.
However, this is an offense that is finally starting to click after underperforming earlier this season. While the Jags offense ranked just 29th in the league in EPA after Week 3, they are eighth in EPA over the last two weeks.
Following the Jaguars’ 31-21 win over the Colts in Week 1, these two AFC South rivals now clash in Jacksonville where Indy is 0-7 straight up and against the spread over the last seven meetings.
I’m going against the line movement and taking the Jags here.
My best bet: Jaguars -4 (-110 at bet365)Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Colts vs Jaguars same-game parlay
Jaguars +4.5 (+100)Trevor Lawrence Over 248.5 passing yards (-110)Zack Moss Under 45.5 rushing yards (-110)
+450 at bet365
Trevor Lawrence boasts the fourth-highest offensive rating among quarterbacks per Pro Football Focus and just threw for 315 yards against the Bills. If Jags receivers clean up the drops that plagued them earlier this year, they’ll torch a vulnerable Indianapolis secondary.
Meanwhile, Moss is coming off a monster 165-yard game but he’s due for regression against a Jags stop unit that ranks fourth in defensive rush EPA and limits foes to 3.7 yards per carry. We also need to factor in that Taylor is back in the lineup and vying for more snaps after coming off an injury to make his season debut last week.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Colts vs Jaguars spread and Over/Under analysis
The spread has slimmed from Jaguars -5 to -4 while the total has ticked down from 45.5 to 44.5.
These teams met up in Week 1 with the Jags winning by 10 points as 3.5-point road favorites. That improved Jacksonville’s record to 5-3 SU and 7-1 ATS in the previous eight meetings between these divisional rivals.
After that victory, the Jags dropped back-to-back games against the Chiefs and Texans but they got back on track in London, beating the Falcons in Week 4 before upsetting the Bills as 5.5-point pups last week.
The Colts have gone 3-1 SU and ATS since that Week 1 loss and are fresh off a 23-16 victory against the Titans. Minshew has played a big role in all three of those victories, combining to complete 70.4% of his passes for 553 yards with a pass efficiency rating of 97.4.
